We are in for a wet spring. The weather patterns establish during a very active weather winter still remain in place. Ample moisture from the gulf collects in Texas meets cold fronts falling from the north west and combine to form a storm front that stretches from Texas to the northern plains and gradually works it’s way eastward while gaining force and momentum. The hardest hit areas will be from St. Louis, MO eastward into the Ohio valley. This weather pattern will provide ample moisture to the NE and to the drought ridden SE but it may well overwhelm the Mississippi basin. We may see substantial flooding from Illinois to the delta. The Ohio valley will be the hardest hit because it is already saturated and the large influx of melt waters and storm volume will be immense and the bowl like valley geoformation will not take the pressure.
This will be a very active tornado season. The abundance of winter tornados along the established pattern line guarantees a violent late spring as the southern temperatures rise and the large artic cold mass and considerable northern snow pack give up their final blasts of frigid energy. The reoccuring jet stream patterns seems to guarantee a volitile mixture of warm, moist southern air with a large body of low pressure systems emanating from the NW.
River volume already taxed by an active spring storm season will be overwhelmed by the vast quantity of snow melt to happen in the north during late April and early May. We have already seen substantial flooding along the Mississippi and even winter flooding as far north as the Chicago area. The spring patterns combined with the snow melt will offer no relief but should be a signal to those living in the flood plane to prepare for the worse.
During the snow melt flooding may be seen as far north as Minnesota and Wisconsin. The one saving grace is that it has been a relatively cool early spring, if the snow packs melt gradually wide spread flooding may be avoided. If temperatures rise gradually in the Midwest it may ameliorate the severity of the inevitable storm season.
My gut feeling backed by observable weather patterns says this is going to be a bad one. The Corps of Engineers should be shoring up levees, property owners should evaluate their proximity to the danger of flooding and take any precautions. Everyone along the Mississippi basin should be on alert.
Stand tough and say a prayer to old Noah.
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