Predicting natural disasters is somewhat akin to fortune telling in that generalizations nearly always seem to fit post event. The Indonesian tsunami events of some few years ago illustrate this point quite well. Numerous learned’ and expert’ seismologists and geologists issued ominous predictions of future tsunamis being a certainty. A charlatan fortuneteller I recall speaking with as a child confidently predicted I would have a rocky and unsteady future’; the parallels between this astounding revelation and the predictions of future tsunamis being a certainty are not exactly profound!
Predicting future tsunamis in an unstable undersea geological area where two massive continents grind against each other is pointless, monitoring the region and establishing a network of devices capable of detecting an oncoming tsunami with sufficient time to enable evacuation can be the only logical solution to this natural hazard.
Tornado Alley’ in the United States of America is quite an amazing area of land prone to one of the most destructive natural forces of nature experienced on the planet of today. Insane wind velocities exceeding 400mph scything a wild and unpredictable path across inhabited areas cannot be stopped, locals know they occur and recognize many of the warning signs that suggest a tornado is imminent. What possible purpose does predicting’ such a natural disaster serve given it tornadoes are literally a weather phenomena generated because of the geographical landscape between valleys and mountains
Cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons are another weather phenomena capable of mass destruction and which are generally limited to defined coastal areas. Thanks to satellite imagery we can now see these form and track them from space, usually with sufficient accuracy to evacuate low-lying areas however this technology does not enable any accurate means of prediction. As near as we can get is identifying weather patterns and cloud formations together with data on ocean currents and temperatures to a degree that offers probability statistics suggesting the likelihood of tropical storm generation.
Natural hazards and disasters will continue to happen and there is nothing we as a species can do other than try every possible scientific method and engineering solution available to mitigate the consequences. There is no real science involved in prediction, at best mathematical probability sometimes provide windows of time in which a higher likelihood of a natural hazards or disasters might eventuate. Even the most experienced of vulcanologist cannot seem to provide absolute certainty volcanoes rumble to life however it does not always follow they erupt.
