2011 Hurricane Season Predictions
After America faced the devastating effects of Hurricane Katrina; there has been an increased apprehension as each “Hurricane Season” approaches. Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
What is a hurricane? It is a “Tropical Cyclone” (called a typhoon in the Pacific Ocean). The weather bureaus declare a hurricane watch, when a tropical storm intensifies, and it becomes likely that a hurricane will develop within 24-36 hours. When the wind velocity has reached the intensity of: 74-95 miles per hour; the storm becomes a Category One Hurricane, and is “named”. Category Two 96-110 mph, Category Three 130 mph, Category Four 131-155 mph, Category Five Winds greater than 155 mph. Categories of Tropical Storms showing the types of damage that can be expected with each category.
The National Hurricane Center has been keeping records since 1851.
Like most events in nature, the severity and impact is noted to be cyclical. But does that make them “Predictable”? We are still working on that. We have learned we cannot stand & fight great devastation of Mother Natures wrath; but we can prepare or run from it. So numerous agencies have been working hard to make predictions, that can at least help us to prepare for such disasters.
What can we expect of 2011?
Note: “NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions.”
In general: NOAA’s 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 65% chance of an above normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.
Specifically; what are the biggest risks:
Most scientists say the rise in sea surface temperature in the last 30 to 50 years is a signal of global warming. According to a new study in the Journal Nature: Hurricanes and typhoons have become stronger and longer-lasting over the past 30 years. These upswings correlate with a rise in sea surface temperatures. This would support “greater risk” as long as ocean temperatures continue to rise.
Gulf Coast vulnerability:
The floor of the Gulf of Mexico is like a barely tilted shelf that rises gradually to the shore. If a hurricane rages toward land, it will tend to push tons of seawater up that slope. “You get this big force of water coming on shore,” as stated by Mr. Read, of the National Hurricane Center. Water 20 feet or higher could surge onto land. Flooding can be even worse in “rehabilitated swamp areas” where much of the natural coastal protection has been removed. This is what occurred in 2004 with Hurricane Frances, and the “BIG One”: Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In which devastation was increased by the loss of protection provided from the former mangrove swamps.
North Eastern Atlantic: Is the real “Focus”, on the fear of the “next Big One”.
Long Island and Rhode Island were both hit by a major hurricane in 1929. New York and New Jersey: Were hit in 1821, a major hurricane made a direct hit on Manhattan. In August 23, 1893, a terrifying Category 2 hurricane wiped out, Hog Island. The pig-shaped mile-long barrier island was off the southern coast of the Rockaway’s, a resort Island similar to the Hampton’s. It is now gone. This hurricane also made landfall on the swamp that is now JFK airport. The area was hit again in the “Long Island Express”, a Category 5 Hurricane in 1938 with 183-mile-per-hour winds.
Mike Lee the former Director of Watch Command at New York City’s Office of Emergency Management, has been warning for over Ten Years; that the next “Big One” will be in the New York/New Jersey area. According to a 2006 United States Geological Survey, there is a 71% probability of a major hurricane in the area within the next 20 years, which could cause at least 1,000 deaths. An important study done by J.E. Hughes in 1998, calculated that a major hurricane has struck in the New York Metropolitan area every 80 years or so. New Jersey has not been directly impacted by a hurricane in some 180 years, and “is long overdue for one“. In addition; according to AIR Worldwide Corporation, an insurance-industry analyst, On AIR’s list of “the top ten worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike,” New York City is No. 2, behind only Miami. New Orleans is ranked fifth.
How accurate are forecasts?
We must keep in mind the forecasts are not like “Psychic Predictions” of an occurrence in the distant future. They are made by stringent observation of current atmospheric conditions, and studying storms as the develop by radar, and aerial observation. The department makes an “official” forecast every Six hours. They can update more frequently as increased storm danger progresses.
The 2011 National Hurricane Conference Atlanta GA.*
The conference looks at the 2010 hurricane activity, to get a possible idea of the coming season. Watcher’s of last year’s Hurricane Earl reported: As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, Hurricane Earl was spinning furiously near the Turks and Caicos Islands with sustained winds of 135 mph after rapidly intensifying from a Category 1 to a Category 4 hurricane caused warning coastal North Carolina; to expect landfall at a possible level 3.Concern was that any westward move it could be in a direct line for Greater New York, which had not experienced a direct storm hit since Hurricane Gloria struck the region in 1985. Look at the path of Hurricane Earl for yourself. Was it a near miss?
So far, no one can actually predict a damaging landfall Hurricane. So today the greatest danger; is complacency and apathy in failing to adequately prepare for the inevitable “Big One“.
Sources:
History of Hurricanes in New York-the day in 1893 that Hog Island disappeared for good.
http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/people/columns/intelligencer/12908/
National Geographic
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0804_050804_hurricanewarming.html
http://www.air-worldwide.com/PublicationsItem.aspx?id=20786
preview 2011 Hurricane season
