Hurricanes, or “typhoons” in areas other than the Atlantic Basin, do not just happen; they are the product of several stages of development. During their development, hurricanes are typically unpredictable and their paths change frequently. How does one know if the hurricane is going to impact them?
Hurricane season runs officially from June 1 to December 1 of each year although hurricanes can form before or after the official season. The months of August and September are typically the peak of the storm season
Hurricanes always form over water. In its initial stage, the hurricane may be a wave of energy moving west off the coast of Africa and into the Atlantic Ocean. This would be the most prevalent hurricane for the August and September season. This wave, officially named a Cape Verde Wave, would enter the ocean and drift eastward toward the Leeward Islands along the ocean currents near the Equator. During the westward movement, ocean SST or Sea Surface Temperature plays a major role in development or dissipation. The higher the temperature, the more rapid the intensification. Ocean surface temperatures of about 82 degrees Fahrenheit or higher are required to support development. Other factors play major roles in development and tracking including upper level wind shear, dry air infusion, and other factors.
If the energy makes it into the open ocean and sufficient intensification occurs, scientists in many countries go onto alert status, monitoring the wave energy on a 24 hour a day basis using a vast armada of scientific apparatus, mostly stationed in orbit in space. In the USA, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), goes into alert mode. If the wave of energy has developed sufficiently and it appears to pose a hazard to land or shipping, Hurricane Hunter aircraft may be dispatched to fly through the storm and gather data using on-board instruments and dropsonde gauges, which are disposable weather data instruments that are dropped from the aircraft. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft with catchy names such as “Miss Piggy” and “Kermit”, flying under radio call sign prefix “TEAL”, broadcast public data which can be monitored live even on the web at sites such as http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/. But this data is highly detailed and specialized and it requires a good deal of knowledge in order to decipher it.
All data from all sources is fed through the National Hurricane Center (NHC) which evaluates raw data and issues advisories which include forecast track and intensity. The process of forecasting is handled mostly by computer models but a substantial amount of human expert opinion is also included in the forecasts. Because of the changing weather environment, forecasts are reasonably accurate for about 24 hours but confidence in exact tracks and intensity after that diminishes rapidly. The NHC forecasts a “3 Day Cone” which is which is a boundary within which the storm has a 95% chance of staying within. At 24 hours out, the boundary may be 100 miles wide and at 72 hours out it may be 300 miles wide.
The NHC also issues watches and warnings associated with hurricanes or tropical storms. Nobody at any level of authority takes watches and warnings lightly. Upon issuing either, certain emergency actions go into effect. A watch usually causes activation of local emergency authorities who go into standby mode. A warning causes many emergency preparedness actions by federal and state authorities. These actions may include mandating evacuations or closing businesses or any number of costly actions. Warnings are usually not issued until the event is about 24 hours away or certainty is very high.
In addition to government sources such as the NHC, there are a number of private severe weather businesses. WeatherUnderground.Com is a free web site that focuses on tropical severe weather and weather in general, and it uses primarily a blog based presentation. Other web based resources include Accuweather, Weather Channel, and many others.
In America anywhere along the coast line from Texas along the Gulf of Mexico and around Florida and up the Atlantic Coast through Maine is open to impact from a hurricane. During the summer and into the fall of each year it is important that anyone near those coast lines at least watch their local weather occasionally. It is also wise to know evacuation routes and how to prepare for a hurricane. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) maintains information on its web site www.fema.gov and further preparedness advice including checklists can be found at www.ready.gov.
If a hurricane warning is issued for your local area, there is almost a 100% chance that you will be impacted by hurricane weather which includes extremely high wind and a tremendous amount of rain even if the hurricane center does not pass immediately over you. Wind damage and flooding would be almost assured. The best advice from anyone is to prepare your home as best you can and leave. Go as far inland as you can and wait-out the storm.
Hurricanes dissipate their most damaging energy almost immediately upon making landfall. Wind speed diminishes but rainfall remains a flooding concern until the storm completely dissipates.
In most cases assuming one has prepared and thought through a plan of action of what to do in case of a hurricane, preparing and evacuation result in minimal losses and very fast recovery after the storm. The key is to prepare and have a plan.
